"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when both games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If link 12bet in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone tells you that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a great replacement for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have previously seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."